WMO forecasts intense El Niño and triple ocean warming through early 2027

Triple ocean anomaly

The World Meteorological Organization published its Global Seasonal Climate Update, projecting a simultaneous convergence of three oceanic anomalies between September and November 2026. In the tropical Pacific, surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region are forecast to reach approximately +3.6 °C, with maximum intensity expected between November and December. Below the Pacific surface, local water temperatures between July and August 2026 measured more than 8 °C above average. The WMO assessed the probability of El Niño persisting through February 2027 at nearly 100%, noting that the event could rank among the strongest in modern observational history. Concurrently, the Indian Ocean Dipole is forecast to reach +0.9 °C in a positive phase, producing warmer western waters and cooler eastern waters near Indonesia and Australia. Surface temperatures across both the northern and southern tropical Atlantic are also projected to stay above normal, with the WMO noting that these multi-basin conditions can reinforce or alter weather patterns across the globe.

Global weather risks

The alignment of these oceanic systems alters precipitation and heat distributions across multiple continents. El Niño events recur on a cycle of two to seven years and typically persist for 9 to 12 months, developing between March and June before peaking between November and February. The previous cycle across 2023 and 2024 generated global temperature extremes and broad shifts in rainfall patterns. Between September 2026 and February 2027, the WMO projects higher temperatures and heavier precipitation across most land regions, elevating risks of severe heat, drought, and flooding across South America, Australia, Oceania, Asia, and Europe. Addressing these projections, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres warned about the rising frequency of severe environmental shocks.

The world is in the danger zone of extreme weather events. The challenge now is between rising risks and our commitment to climate action and protecting people. We must win this challenge.

Preparedness and adaptation

Governments are evaluating the domestic and international implications of these forecasts, ranging from emergency logistics to population displacement. In an interview with The Guardian, British Environment Minister Angela Eagle advised citizens to consider self-sufficiency during severe weather disruptions, noting that flooding in Asia and other regions will test global humanitarian resources.

If you have a food supply that allows you to survive for a while before emergency services arrive, you will be in a much better situation than others.

To address long-term water and food security, the United Kingdom is constructing Havant Thicket, the nation's first new reservoir project since 1992, alongside agricultural transition programs intended to sustain farming systems. The warnings coincide with a United Nations assessment issued two days earlier regarding the potential to exceed 1.5 °C of global warming unless greenhouse gas emissions decrease significantly before the end of the century.