US draft Ukraine plan offers Russia sanctions relief and gas, Economist reports

A draft US plan for Ukraine

The Economist, citing US administration sources and Ukrainian officials, reports that Washington has drafted a new version of a settlement for the war in Ukraine. Deutsche Welle, which relayed the report on Thursday, 22 October, says the plan would create a demilitarized zone in Donbas, require Kyiv to abandon NATO membership and lift sanctions on Russia. In return Ukraine would receive an investment package and a prospect of European Union membership. Ukrainian officials know the broad outline but not every detail, according to the magazine. The United States cannot decide on EU accession or on gas imports itself, so those parts depend on European approval.

Terms for each side

Under the draft, Ukraine could not launch missiles at Moscow or St Petersburg, but the plan would place no limit on Russian strikes, according to Deutsche Welle. It caps the Ukrainian army at 600,000 personnel, sets no ceiling for Russia and bars NATO troops from Ukrainian territory. Russia would be offered deals with American companies, sanctions relief and normalized political relations. Digi24 reports the demilitarized zone would cover the part of Donetsk region that Russian troops have not occupied. On gas, Berliner Zeitung notes that the EU's full import ban on liquefied gas applies from 1 January 2027 and that the transition deadline for long-term pipeline contracts is 30 September 2027, extendable to 1 November, so a restart would require overriding that timetable.

Diplomacy and the midterm backdrop

Steve Witkoff met Zelensky in Oslo before travelling to Moscow, where he held talks with Vladimir Putin on 21 October, the first such visit in many months. Ziare reports that Jared Kushner and Witkoff agreed the main details of a new peace plan with Zelensky on 20 October. On 22 October Trump said the sides were close to a peace agreement for the first time in a long time. Putin says he also wants to negotiate a new security system for Europe, while Zelensky has said Ukraine is ready to negotiate at the table with US and Russian representatives. According to the Economist, Trump's main priority remains the midterm congressional elections on 3 November, and polled ratings for the Republican Party and Trump himself have reached record lows. US officials quoted by the magazine believe Witkoff and Kushner misread Putin's intentions and are open to Moscow's influence, while Elon Musk's position on Ukraine is described as ambiguous.

Ukrainian doubts and the diesel shipment

Ukrainian negotiators, according to the Economist, doubt Moscow intends to make peace and fear that US envoys could strike lucrative business deals before the war ends. The tanker Agioi Fanendes, flying the Maltese flag and operated by Greece's EASTMED, has left the Russian port of Primorsk with diesel bound for New York. Kpler, cited by AFP, puts the cargo near 300,000 barrels and the arrival at 7 November, though that can change en route. Reuters, citing LSEG data, gives a cargo of 40,000 tonnes and a departure from Primorsk on 22 October. Trump announced in early October a deal for Russian diesel to reach the US market, and on 9 October he said Russia would export 300,000 tonnes immediately, a further 500,000 tonnes in November and another million tonnes afterwards. Zelensky called the arrangement unfair and said Moscow had used the occasion to negotiate it directly with Putin.