Trump's Russian diesel deal eases pressure on Putin without Ukraine concessions

A deal with no price for Moscow

Trump announced on 9 October that the United States would buy Russian diesel, and he asked Putin for nothing in return. Washington then pressed Ukraine to stop attacking Russian oil refineries, the most effective pressure Kyiv has, and suspended sanctions on Russia that Trump had only just approved. Trump later said Russia had, frankly, behaved well regarding Ukraine. The turn came exactly a year after Trump imposed sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies in October 2025, when he complained that talks with Putin were going nowhere.

Russia's first cargo and export schedule

Russia's government announced on Thursday, 22 October, that gasoline and diesel output had risen and that reserves were building up. A day earlier, Russian first deputy minister Alexander Novak had said the first tanker, carrying 40,000 tonnes of diesel, would sail for the United States. Under the agreement, Russia is to export more than 300,000 tonnes immediately, a further 500,000 tonnes during November and one million tonnes after that. Novak has suggested Moscow could bring those plans forward and ship up to 3.5 million tonnes of diesel by the end of 2026. Steve Witkoff thanked Putin for the decision to send diesel to the United States during their meeting in St Petersburg on Wednesday, 21 October, and Novak said the supply contract is in its final phase.

Oil production order at home

On Thursday, 22 October, Trump signed a presidential memorandum declaring oil production, refining and related activities essential to national defence. The document invokes part of the Defense Production Act, a Cold War-era law that allows financial incentives for oil projects, pipelines and liquid fuel storage. The memo argues that without these steps the United States cannot supply enough energy services in a timely way, citing financing limits, long lead times and supply chain constraints. It names no specific projects. Vice President JD Vance said last week the administration would use the act to expand a Texas refinery owned by Delek US Holdings. Trump had signed legislation last year that included $1 billion in Defense Production Act funding for energy projects deemed critical to national security.

Prices and the midterm vote

Oil and gas prices have surged since the United States and Israel jointly attacked Iran at the end of February, and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries have deepened the fuel shortage. The US produced an average of 13.6 million barrels of crude a day in 2025, making it the world's largest oil producer, according to RTVE. Ahead of the 3 November midterm elections, Republicans are trying to keep control of both chambers of Congress. A Reuters/Ipsos poll concluded last Monday found that only 36% of Americans approve of Trump's handling of the economy. The diesel deal was partly a political calculation to bring fuel prices down before the vote.

Ukraine, Witkoff and the talks

During the St Petersburg meeting, Witkoff called Putin a humanitarian, according to Rzeczpospolita. El Mundo reports that about twenty ballistic missiles were launched at Kyiv hours after that meeting. According to the same column, Moscow still demands the whole of Donbas, Ukrainian neutrality and a new government in Kyiv. Elon Musk has warned that Starlink, on which the Starshield military service depends, is subject to decisions by the US government. A summit planned in Budapest had collapsed earlier, and Rzeczpospolita reports a possible trilateral meeting of Putin, Trump and Xi Jinping in November.