Trump conditions Saudi nuclear deal on Abraham Accords, throwing agreement into doubt a day after signing

The deal and its terms

On Wednesday, July 22, the United States and Saudi Arabia announced a 30-year civilian nuclear cooperation agreement. The deal, valued at more than $10 billion, gives American companies a central role in building nuclear infrastructure in the kingdom, shutting out competitors from Russia and China. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the agreement aims to meet Saudi Arabia's "energy needs" and support Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's plan to use nuclear power for electricity, freeing oil for export. The text of the agreement has not been released, but reports indicate it could eventually allow Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium on its own soil, pending a two-year joint feasibility study. Unlike the UAE's 2009 nuclear deal, the Saudi pact is strictly bilateral and does not include an additional protocol with the International Atomic Energy Agency, raising proliferation concerns.

Trump's surprise condition

One day after the announcement, President Trump upended the agreement with a post on his Truth Social network. He wrote that the deal "will be approved, but is totally subject to Saudi Arabia joining the very respected and successful Abraham Accords." The White House insisted the Saudis were aware of the condition, though it was not mentioned when the deal was unveiled. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters, "The president is always the final dealmaker," adding that Trump "feels very strongly" about the Abraham Accords and would "continue to uphold" the linkage.

The civilian nuclear deal... will be approved, but is totally subject to Saudi Arabia joining the very respected and successful Abraham Accords.

Saudi Arabia's bind

Saudi Arabia has long maintained that normalization with Israel requires a concrete pathway to a Palestinian state, a prospect Israel's current government rejects. Analysts say Trump's demand puts Riyadh in an extremely awkward position. Rosemary Kelanic, director of the Middle East program at Defense Priorities, said agreeing to the condition would be "so politically toxic, it could jeopardize the survival of the Saudi regime." Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, questioned whether the demand was a "transitory reaction or a serious condition," noting that Trump has used social media as a negotiating tool even after deals are sealed. Former French ambassador to Saudi Arabia Bertrand Besancenot called Trump's move "blackmail" that has "no chance" of succeeding without Israeli commitment to a Palestinian state. H.A. Hellyer of the Royal United Services Institute told AFP, "If Washington tries to force normalization on Riyadh, it's not likely to work out very well."

Agreeing to Mr. Trump's condition would poison the legitimacy of his government.

Regional and international reactions

The deal has drawn criticism from Israel and beyond. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Saudi recognition a "historic leap" for peace, but the agreement's less stringent nonproliferation terms have unsettled the UAE, which gave up enrichment rights in its own nuclear deal. Critics warn the Saudi pact could trigger a nuclear arms race in a region already battered by war. The deal also comes amid ongoing US-Iran hostilities, with Trump threatening to bomb Iranian infrastructure if Tehran attacks ships in the Strait of Hormuz. On the same day, Houthi rebels aligned with Iran struck a Saudi oil tanker in the Bab el-Mandeb strait.

What comes next

The agreement must still be approved by the US Congress, where it faces opposition. The two-year feasibility study on uranium enrichment would outlast Trump's current term, leaving the final decision to his successor. For now, the deal's fate hinges on whether Saudi Arabia will bend on its Palestinian condition, a step analysts consider unlikely.