Trump approval hits 31% as Democrats lead midterm vote by 12 points

Approval and the midterm vote

A Reuters/Ipsos poll published on 20 October put Trump's approval at 31%, one point lower than two weeks earlier and the lowest level recorded during his presidency. Asked which party they would back if midterm elections were held that day, 47% of registered voters who took part chose the Democrats and 35% chose the Republicans. The 12-point lead is the widest for the Democrats in the current cycle. The midterms take place on 3 November, and the report says Americans are worried about the high cost of petrol.

Money and the campaign

Michael Bloomberg has spent $80m to help Democratic candidates, with contributions made in September and October focused on Democrats trying to flip the House of Representatives. Trump has said he intends to spend $400m to aid Republican candidates, and $300m of that has already been disbursed. Elon Musk, a Trump ally, has spent $366m so far on the Republican side. Democrats believe they are favored to take back the House, although they acknowledge trailing Republicans in fundraising.

Ukraine and Republican dissent

Some Republicans have pushed back against Trump's softening stance on Russia and have threatened to withhold support for his agenda. Don Bacon, an outgoing congressman from Nebraska, called Trump's actions, including an agreement to buy Russian diesel and a pause in sanctions on Moscow, 'absolutely disgraceful'. He accused the president of cozying up to a 'war criminal' in Vladimir Putin. On Tuesday, 20 October, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine was again receiving advance warnings of ballistic missile attacks, which the White House had seemingly suspended earlier in October. Washington Post opinion writers argue that Trump's sanctions waiver effectively nullified a recently passed law meant to increase economic pressure on Russia, and they link it to reported delays in intelligence sharing and missile interceptor transfers to Ukraine.

Corruption, AI and the Pentagon

A Fox News poll cited in a Washington Post column found that 89% of Americans believe corruption is widespread in government, a record high and 30 points above 2006. Early voting is already underway. A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll of more than 2,500 Americans found that 57% say AI is bad for society, two in three oppose new US data centers, and 67% disapprove of Trump's handling of the technology. The White House responded through spokeswoman Liz Huston, who said:

President Trump is committed to ensuring America continues to lead the world in super intelligence while protecting American consumers.

Separately, current and former Pentagon officials are ready to 'spill their guts' to Congress about Pete Hegseth, sources said. Democrats have already made contact with potential whistleblowers ahead of an expected House victory in November.

Promises tied to the vote

Trump has linked several pledges to Republican wins in November. At the party's midterm convention in Dallas in September, he promised a $5,000 'dividend' if Republicans keep control of Congress, a plan the Washington Post analysis puts at well over $1 trillion. On 20 October in North Carolina, he said the Justice Department would settle 'all remaining legitimate claims' from contaminated water at Camp Lejeune 'as soon as possible' if Republicans win both chambers.

If we don't win, there's no money. If we do win, you are getting it, and it is going to be finally over with.

In Kansas during the week of 19 October, Trump said year-round E15 fuel would be made permanent if Republican Senator Roger Marshall wins reelection next month. He also said he would not do it if Adam Hamilton is elected.