S&P affirms Greece at BBB with stable outlook, sees 2026 primary surplus at 3.8% of GDP

Rating held at BBB

S&P Global Ratings affirmed Greece's sovereign credit rating at BBB, an investment-grade level, with a stable outlook, leaving the grade unchanged from the agency's first 2026 review in April. The decision was reported on 23 October 2026. S&P is the fourth of the five rating agencies recognised by the European Central Bank to assess the Greek economy in this year's review sequence. Fitch is due to close the 2026 review cycle in November.

Budget surpluses seen above target

S&P now expects the general government balance to record a surplus of 0.8% of GDP in 2026, with a primary surplus of 3.8%, roughly one percentage point of GDP above the government's initial target. Budget execution through August stood about 1.1 billion euros above target, helped by strong tourism receipts that lift VAT revenue, a further fall in unemployment and tax-compliance reforms that boost income tax receipts. The agency noted that spending runs above budget forecasts, and that recent announcements point to higher investment financed from national resources starting this year. For 2027 to 2029, S&P projects an average general government surplus of 0.2% of GDP and an average primary surplus of 3.2%. It said Greece's track record of beating fiscal targets, despite new external and geopolitical shocks, suggests the government will keep posting overall surpluses.

Debt path and external risks

S&P estimates general government debt net of liquid assets will fall to 123% of GDP by the end of 2026, 40 percentage points below the end of 2019, and to 107% of GDP by the end of 2029. The agency links that path to continued fiscal discipline combined with sustainable growth in nominal GDP. Economic activity has proven resilient, driven by investment, despite a demanding external environment.

The agency's statement says that Greece's external imbalances remain high, but that euro area membership and adherence to EU fiscal rules offer protection against the risk of a balance-of-payments shock.

Although Greece's external imbalances are high, we believe its euro area membership and adherence to EU fiscal rules provide protection against the risk of a balance-of-payments shock.

The stable outlook weighs strong economic and fiscal performance against high external and public debt. S&P said it could raise the rating if Greece's external imbalances improved materially and sustainably, for example through lower dependence of the economy on imports, or if external debt, much of it public, fell substantially. It could lower the rating if fiscal performance deteriorated significantly.

Rating moves across agencies

Scope upgraded Greece to BBB+ in September. In the same month, Moody's and DBRS moved their outlooks on Greece's Baa3 and BBB ratings to positive from stable. S&P's affirmation therefore comes after a run of upgrades and outlook revisions earlier in the year, with the stable outlook kept in place. Fitch's decision, due in November, is the last of the 2026 cycle.