Ryanair's O'Leary forecasts biggest European airfare rise in history, up to 20% next year

The forecast

Michael O'Leary, chief executive of Ryanair, told a news conference in Brussels on Tuesday, 20 October 2026, that European airfares could rise by 10, 15 or maybe 20 percent next year. He described the coming twelve months as bringing the biggest increase in European airfares in history. In his view, the cost of jet fuel and a shrinking supply of seats would push prices up, as bankruptcies and takeovers among airlines remove capacity.

You're going to see the biggest increase in airfares, I would say, in history in Europe for the next 12 months.

O'Leary also said that higher ticket prices might not be enough to cover the much costlier oil bill, which would squeeze airline margins. The forecast concerns the European market as a whole, not a blanket price rise announced by Ryanair itself.

Fuel costs and hedging

Fuel sits at the centre of the warning. The war with Iran, which began at the end of February, pushed oil prices above $100 a barrel, and they stood at 108.9 at 19:00 Italian time on 20 October. Jet fuel reached $1,638 a tonne on 16 October, compared with $770 in February 2026. Ryanair had hedged about 80 percent of its fuel needs to March 2027 at $67 a barrel, but from April 2027 it has covered only 15 percent, at $85 a barrel, which O'Leary put at roughly half of current market prices. O'Leary said 85 percent of Ryanair's fuel needs for next year are not covered by hedging, and most other European airlines are in a similar position. Earlier, the IATA trade body had forecast that jet fuel would average $152 a barrel in 2026, 70 percent above the $90 of 2025.

Seats and Belgium

Ryanair is also cutting capacity. It will remove 20 routes and more than a million seats from Belgium in its winter schedule. The move responds to Belgium's planned rise in aviation tax from €2 to €7 starting in January. Earlier, the airline had already reduced its offer in Germany and Austria because of high operating costs. Fewer seats on a market with strong demand would give airlines more room to raise prices, which is the logic behind the forecast.

Aircraft certification and outlook

O'Leary hoped US certification of the Boeing 737 MAX 10 would be completed before the end of October, which would let Ryanair take 16 aircraft in early 2027. Certification was reported to have taken place on Tuesday, 20 October. The sequence below runs from the start of the war to the point where most of Ryanair's fuel hedges give way to market prices.

The size of any fare increase will depend on oil prices, the course of the Middle East conflict and each airline's pricing strategy.