Russian military satellite closes in on commercial radar satellite linked to Ukraine

A close approach in orbit

Russia's military satellite Cosmos-2612 began abrupt speed changes in late September to join the orbital plane of ICEYE-X36, a commercial radar satellite registered in the United States and owned by the US arm of the Finnish company ICEYE. Cosmos-2612 was one of six Kosmos satellites Russia launched in April, and it was later joined on a similar orbit by several of its companions. According to trajectory data analysed by AFP, it kept adjusting its path until it sat within a hundredth of a degree of the commercial satellite's orbit. Between 15 and 19 October, LeoLabs says, it moved alternately ahead of and behind ICEYE-X36 at about 550 kilometres above the Earth, before beginning to pull away.

Distances reported by different sources

The figures differ because the reports measured the gap at different moments. CNN, as cited by Courrier international, reported that the distance fell from about 350 kilometres on 15 October to under five kilometres by the morning of 16 October. Al Jazeera, citing LeoLabs, put the starting point at more than 320 kilometres and the closest point at about 4.8 kilometres. LeoLabs estimated the closest approach at about 500 metres, a figure it called uncertain. AFP's trajectory analysis placed the two satellites less than 100 metres apart on the morning of 18 October, and LeoLabs said by Monday 19 October Cosmos-2612 had begun moving away.

What the observers make of intent

LeoLabs said the events did not prove hostile intent, but the capabilities on display could serve intelligence collection, inspection in orbit, coercive signalling, interference or preparation for future counterspace operations. Clayton Swope of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said he had no idea what Moscow was seeking, while adding that nothing suggested the manoeuvres had a peaceful purpose. Georgy Trishkin, a Russian space analyst interviewed by The Insider, judged a direct attack unlikely because it could be read as aggression against the United States. Lise Erard of Rasmussen Global argued that Russia and China have long acted in ways that contradict the peaceful-use principles they accuse Washington of breaking.

Wider context in space

Erard said the United States told the public in September that it had stationed weapons in space, a shift from its earlier doctrine. Mark Hilborne of King's College London told Al Jazeera that Russia has mostly targeted Western military satellites rather than commercial ones. In early 2020, two Russian satellites moved close to USA 245, a US spy satellite. In May this year, four Russian military satellites moved close to a commercial radar satellite used by Ukraine, and the US Space Force described those manoeuvres as very fuel-intensive. Russia had earlier called commercial satellites that supply data to Ukraine legitimate targets, according to Handelsblatt.

The Ukraine link and company responses

ICEYE's US office said it was aware of the situation and was following it closely. In January the company announced an expanded partnership with the Ukrainian military to support better situational awareness and tactical planning. ICEYE chief executive Rafal Modrzewski told Reuters that the company had moved its own satellite, which appeared to prompt further Russian manoeuvres. A Ukrainian official told Axios that the military works with ICEYE, but it is unclear whether ICEYE-X36 itself supports Ukraine. ICEYE declined to say whether the satellite is used directly by the Ukrainian army, and Russia's defence ministry, air and space forces and Roskosmos had not responded to CNN's requests for comment.