Rubio in India: trade deal 'pretty close', Reliance under US pressure over oil

Rubio's business-focused visit

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio opened his visit to India in Mumbai, the country's financial hub. A senior US official who briefed reporters said Mumbai was chosen because the visit focuses on commercial diplomacy, and that the two countries are close to finalizing a bilateral trade deal. According to the Ministry of External Affairs, Rubio is scheduled to meet Foreign Minister S Jaishankar around 4 p.m. local time. He will also pay tribute at the 26/11 memorial at the Taj Palace hotel and attend the US @250 event. Rubio is expected to meet executives of several Indian companies with a large US presence, including Gautam Adani and Mukesh Ambani, whom the New York Times calls Asia's two richest men. US ambassador Sergio Gor said the trip is "a little more business-focused" than Rubio's earlier visit this year.

A trade deal that keeps almost closing

Trump said on Tuesday, 20 October, at the White House that a deal with India was near. Asked by reporters about its prospects, he answered:

They want to make a deal. We're going to make a deal. Pretty close, yeah.

Bloomberg reports that the negotiations have run for more than a year. In Mumbai, Rubio gave a similar assessment and said the remaining work was limited:

We're very very close; I would say we're about as close as you can be without having an executed agreement.

Trump has threatened tariffs on India since returning to office in 2025, citing what he calls unfair trade practices and India's purchases of Russian oil during the war in Ukraine. In February 2026 he announced a trade deal that cut US tariffs on Indian goods in exchange for lower Indian trade barriers and an end to Russian oil purchases. Trump said Narendra Modi had promised to stop buying Russian oil, a claim New Delhi has never confirmed. Kpler data show Indian refiners briefly diversified away from Russian crude to avoid tighter sanctions, but dependence on cheap Russian oil remains strong.

Reliance's Jamnagar refinery at the center

The Jamnagar complex, owned by Reliance Industries in Gujarat, processes 1.4 million barrels per day, which Al Jazeera describes as the world's largest single-site refinery. The original facility was commissioned in 1999 with a capacity of 660,000 barrels per day, and a second, export-oriented refinery forms the rest of the complex. Reliance is one of the largest buyers of Venezuelan crude and of Russia's Urals grade, which makes it central to US efforts to pressure Russian energy buyers. Bloomberg reports that Washington wants Reliance to refine more Venezuelan crude, a question to be raised when Rubio meets Chairman Mukesh Ambani. In March Washington unveiled plans for a Texas refinery backed by Reliance, which Trump valued at $300 billion and presented as a way to narrow the US trade deficit with India.

Rubio praised India's efforts to reduce its dependence on Russian energy, saying:

What India has expressed repeatedly is their desire to diversify their energy portfolio, which is a smart thing to do.

He added that the shift is hard to achieve quickly, but that India has made substantial progress. India nonetheless remains one of the largest buyers of Russian oil, while Washington is pushing to increase US energy exports to the country.

Three killed in Manipur shooting

Deutsche Welle reports that at least three people were killed when suspected militants opened fire on 14 Meitei villagers who were cutting and transporting firewood in Manipur. Senior police official Lhari Dorjee Lhatoo told reporters that three people died from bullet wounds and others are receiving medical treatment. Meitei groups blame militants from the Kuki community for the attack, while Kuki groups deny the allegations. The incident sparked protests in Imphal, where villagers carried two bodies to the residence of the chief minister. Since 2023 the state has seen ethnic violence between the Meitei majority and the Kuki minority over economic benefits and job quotas.

What comes next

Rubio is scheduled to travel to Jamnagar on 21 October, where Gor said he will meet people at Reliance. The trade deal has not been executed, and the senior US official said recent visits in both directions were focused on settling the remaining details. Whether India will change its Russian oil purchases under the trade framework is still unresolved in the reporting. The outcome of the Ambani meeting on Venezuelan crude has not been reported.