Diesel to rise 4.5 cents and petrol fall 1.5 cents in Portugal from 19 October

Forecast for the week from 19 October

The Automóvel Club de Portugal (ACP) expects diesel to rise 4.5 cents a litre and petrol to fall 1.5 cents from Monday, 19 October. The estimates use the market close of Thursday, 15 October, and the average pump prices published by the Direção-Geral de Energia e Geologia (DGEG), which put diesel at 2.144 euros and petrol at 2.116 euros on Friday, 16 October. Crude and fuel quotes could still move before the close of 16 October, so final prices may differ from the forecast. Reports differ on the resulting diesel level, with several giving 2.189 euros, others 2.184 euros and one 2.149 euros. For petrol, the estimates range from 2.10 to 2.115 euros.

Crude prices and the Middle East

Brent crude for December delivery, the European benchmark, was down 0.26% at 105.66 dollars a barrel at 10:55 Lisbon time. West Texas Intermediate fell 0.65% to 97.33 dollars. Those levels compare with 103.12 dollars for Brent and 90.77 dollars for WTI on the morning of Friday, 9 October. Pump prices are being shaped by the war in Iran, tensions in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil and gas trade passes. Attacks on refineries linked to the war in Ukraine are also cited as a factor.

Government measures and the ISP discount

Unless it changes course, the government plans no extra measures such as VAT cuts, relying instead on the ISP discount for consumers, which will cost the state 1.3 billion euros in 2026. From Saturday, 17 October, petrol stations must display near the pumps the ISP discount in force, showing the difference between the ISP that would be charged at the reference rate and the tax actually applied, plus VAT, under a label reading Redução ISP+IVA. Posting false, incorrect or outdated information carries fines of 1,000 to 3,000 euros. Next year the government expects ISP revenue of about 3.8 billion euros, the highest ever for the country.

Windfall tax and the US-Russia diesel deal

The government has already approved a levy on excess profits of oil companies, but the draft budget for next year does not say how much it will raise. The contribution, described as 'solidarity', did not go beyond roughly eight million euros in 2022 and 2023. Prime Minister Luís Montenegro criticised the United States on Thursday, 15 October, at the EU heads of state and government summit in Brussels, over a fuel agreement with Russia. He said the deal would have no positive consequence for prices or for the war in Ukraine.

From our point of view, what the United States announced does not amount to a consequent and coherent exercise in resolving this matter.

He argued that fuel availability under the agreement would ease the problem for only a few days.

What it means for drivers

The fuel sector is liberalised, so stations can charge different prices, and the ACP notes that final figures vary by region and by station. Drivers can compare prices locally using the official comparator run by the DGEG. The forecast is an average for the country, not a fixed price at every pump. Any change to the government's ISP discount, which was not yet known at the time of the ACP estimates, could move the outcome again.