Poland's central bank keeps benchmark rate at 3.75% as inflation reaches 3.4%

Policy decision and rate levels

Poland's Monetary Policy Council decided on 9 September 2026 to leave interest rates unchanged following its two-day policy meeting. The benchmark reference rate remains at 3.75%, where it has stood since a 0.25 percentage point cut in early March 2026. The deposit rate stays at 3.25%, the lombard rate at 4.25%, the rediscount rate at 3.80%, and the discount rate at 3.85%. In its post-meeting statement, the central bank indicated that future monetary policy steps will depend on incoming data regarding inflation prospects and overall economic activity. The council pointed to commodity price dynamics and global inflation amidst changing geopolitical conditions as primary determinants of future policy.

Domestic economic conditions

Domestic macroeconomic indicators presented a mixed picture for policymakers during the summer months. According to preliminary estimates by Statistics Poland, annual gross domestic product growth reached 3.9% in the second quarter of 2026, up from 3.5% in the first quarter. This expansion featured an acceleration in investment growth alongside a slowdown in household consumption. In July 2026, industrial production and retail sales expanded on an annual basis, while construction and assembly output contracted. At the same time, annual wage growth moderated in the second quarter compared to the prior three months, and enterprise employment continued to decline in July.

External commodity risks and analyst outlooks

Consumer price inflation rose to 3.4% year on year in August 2026, according to the official flash estimate, up from 3.0% in July. The increase brought inflation close to the upper limit of the central bank target band of 2.5% plus or minus one percentage point. The central bank stated that higher private transport fuel prices and core inflation drove the August price acceleration. External energy pressures intensified as crude oil prices rose by $20 per barrel toward $100 following escalation in the Middle East. Credit Agricole chief economist Jakub Borowski maintained that the council may tighten policy before year-end.

In our opinion, the tone of the statement after the September RPP meeting did not change compared to the July statement. At the same time, the Council still does not signal readiness to resume the cycle of interest rate cuts. We maintain the scenario according to which in the fourth quarter of 2026 it will decide to tighten monetary policy, most likely after the publication of the new inflation projection in November.

Diverging paths for monetary easing

Commercial bank economists presented differing timelines for future monetary adjustments. Credit Agricole forecasts a 25 basis point hike to 4.00% in the fourth quarter of 2026, followed by two 25 basis point cuts in the second half of 2027 down to 3.50%. Bank Pocztowy chief economist Monika Kurtek noted that rising oil and gas prices push the prospect of any rate reduction into the second half of 2027. Erste Group economists expect rates to hold steady at 3.75% through the end of 2026 and throughout 2027 under a gradual energy price normalisation scenario. Economists from ING noted that while market pricing anticipates over 75 basis points in hikes, two 25 basis point cuts could still occur in the second half of 2026 if energy pressures subside. National Bank of Poland Governor Adam Glapiński is scheduled to hold a press conference on 10 September 2026 to provide further context on the decision.