China and India offer mediation on Ukraine as Moscow eyes trilateral talks

Diplomatic mediation at the BRICS summit

During the BRICS summit in New Delhi, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping offered their good offices to assist in finding a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomed their willingness to collaborate after Modi and Xi inquired about potential solutions during bilateral meetings. Putin provided the two leaders with a detailed review of the military and diplomatic situation. Moscow confirmed that discussions are underway regarding a potential trilateral meeting between Russia, the United States, and Ukraine.

During bilateral talks, Modi and Xi asked detailed questions about a settlement in Ukraine and actively offered their good offices to help find a solution.

Proposed trilateral talks and venue options

Russian presidential foreign affairs adviser Yuri Ushakov indicated that several countries have offered to host the proposed trilateral negotiations involving Moscow, Kyiv, and Washington. Crown Prince Khaled bin Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan confirmed the readiness of the United Arab Emirates to provide a platform in Abu Dhabi, which Ushakov described as a suitable venue. Turkey and additional unnamed states have also submitted hosting offers, though Moscow has not yet determined who will head the Russian delegation. Ukrainian presidential chief of staff Kyrylo Budanov expressed hope that an initial round could occur in October 2026 following consultations with national security advisers from the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Italy.

Abu Dhabi has been considered as an option. We have others: the Turkish side is offering its availability, as are other countries. Abu Dhabi is a rather suitable venue for the talks.

Territorial dispute and US draft framework

The main obstacle to reaching a settlement remains the status of Ukrainian territories claimed by Moscow, according to US presidential special envoy Jared Kushner. Kushner stated that Washington has drafted the core elements of a peace accord, but finalization is stalled by Ukrainian reluctance to make territorial concessions in Donbass. Dmitry Peskov confirmed that the Kremlin shares Kushner's assessment, stressing that while no new formal proposals currently exist, exploring options remains the purpose of trilateral contacts. Yuri Ushakov noted that reaching an understanding on territorial issues would facilitate broader agreements on unresolved matters. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has consistently rejected ceding occupied regions.

We need an understanding on what must be agreed regarding the territorial question. However, there are many other issues that still need to be resolved. Nonetheless, if progress were made on the territorial question, it would probably be easier to proceed toward further agreements.

Drone strikes in Tatarstan and near the Polish border

Diplomatic maneuvers coincided with strikes inside Russia and near the western border of Ukraine. In Nizhnekamsk, located in the Russian republic of Tatarstan, a Ukrainian drone strike killed 2 people and injured 12 across industrial and civilian sites. A drone struck a tree and damaged a parked car containing 4 young people, killing 2 and leaving 2 in serious condition, while 4 residents sustained injuries in a residential building. Simultaneously, a Russian drone attack struck a fuel service station at Yahodyn near the Ukrainian border crossing with Poland, igniting a fire among trucks and fuel facilities. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha stated that the strike brought Russian attacks directly to the borders of the European Union and NATO.