Ifop poll puts Le Pen far ahead after 17 October riots in France

What happened on 17 October

Protests against the high cost of living, known in French as la vie chère, took place across France on Saturday, 17 October, and turned violent in several large cities. Rioting, arson and looting followed, and Het Parool reported that about 3,000 shops were targeted by vandalism. Jornal Expresso put the number of looted shops at more than 2,000, so the two outlets' counts differ. Both reported around 2,400 people detained that day, and Het Parool said nearly 1,000 police officers were injured.

The protests began with secondary school and university students before drawing in a wider public, according to Het Parool and Observador. Those figures come from press reports from the immediate aftermath, and none of the sources gives a final official tally.

Political reactions

Marine Le Pen responded within a day, releasing an eight-minute video on Sunday, 18 October, in which she sat at a desk in front of a French flag and a bookcase. She accused the far left of exploiting legitimate social demands, and Jordan Bardella held a press conference on Monday, 19 October under the slogan In the face of chaos, France in order. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu blamed the far-left movement, and in particular LFI, for trying to cause chaos up to the presidential election.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon said on Saturday that the police had provoked the violence, for example by quickly firing tear gas at protesters. Raphaël Glucksmann warned that Le Pen would be the beneficiary of the chaos and that Mélenchon would serve as her stepping stone. Within the RN, a party official rejected any attempt to profit from the riots.

What the Ifop poll shows

The survey was carried out for LCI, Le Figaro and Sud Radio and published on Tuesday, 20 October, with fieldwork conducted during and after the violence. Mélenchon was put at 15% to 20% in the first round, just ahead of Édouard Philippe at 12% to 16%. Glucksmann tied with Mélenchon at 16% in the scenario where Gabriel Attal, polled at 13%, is the centre candidate. Bruno Retailleau was put at 5% to 7%, David Lisnard at 7% when Retailleau was not tested, and Marine Tondelier at 2.5% to 3%.

In the runoff, Le Pen beat Mélenchon 68% to 32% and Philippe 56% to 44%, the closest matchup in the poll. The head-to-head figures are shown below.

Analysts on the political effect

Jean-Yves Dormagen, head of the pollster Cluster17, told Le Temps that the events should have strengthened a demand for order that runs from the centre left to the far right.

The events should normally have strengthened a demand for order that exists from the centre left to the far right.

Dormagen added that this climate is potentially favourable to Le Pen. Political scientist Bruno Cautrès said in the short term the events favour politicians who campaign on law and order and security. Benjamin Morel called Le Pen the big winner of the weekend, and argued that voters see the government as having failed.