Eisenkot's bloc leads Netanyahu's in two Israeli polls, but neither reaches 61 seats

Two new polls put Eisenkot's bloc ahead

Two polls published on 22 October 2026 put the bloc led by Yashar leader Gadi Eisenkot ahead of the bloc led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The Channel 12 poll projects 55 seats for Eisenkot's bloc and 51 for Netanyahu's, while the Channel 13 poll gives the two blocs 52 and 49 seats. Neither bloc reaches the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Both surveys still show a majority of Netanyahu's opponents, as a long series of recent polls has done. Israelis vote on 27 October, when around three million voters will choose parties rather than individual candidates.

Arab parties decide the arithmetic

Eisenkot's bloc would still fall short without seats from Arab parties, because it refuses to cooperate with them. A Zman Yisrael poll released on Thursday shows each bloc on 51 seats, with Yashar on 23, three fewer than in the previous survey, and Likud on 21, one more than the week before. The same poll gives the Joint List nine seats and Ra'am five. Ra'am recognises Israel as a Jewish state and has said it is open to joining a future government, yet Yashar and almost all other opposition parties have ruled out an alliance with the two Arab parties. The opposition's path to a majority therefore depends on a bloc that its own leaders will not join.

What a larger survey projects

A preliminary poll of 4,000 Israelis by Agam Labs, conducted with Hebrew University, suggests that Netanyahu's far-right coalition is unlikely to survive the election. Its most likely scenario gives the right-wing Haredi bloc, including Likud and Shas, 52 to 54 seats, short of a majority, with Likud on 19 and Shas on six. The same projection puts the opposition led by Eisenkot on 20 seats, the most of any bloc, and includes the right-wing party Amcha, which is predicted to clear the threshold. Current seats stand at 60 for Netanyahu's government, 59 for the opposition and one unaffiliated. Dr Nimrod Nir of Agam Labs framed the result as the start of a longer contest.

Israel's election is not a single game, but a tournament -- and election day is only the opening round.

Small parties and the threshold

Several small parties could decide the outcome. Ofer Winter's Povo de Israel, which has committed to supporting only Netanyahu, falls below the entry threshold in the Zman Yisrael survey. Winter accused Netanyahu and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich this week of pressing his party to stay in the race. He said he would try to impose his conditions if his party became essential to a coalition with Likud, while saying he would never act against Netanyahu. Moti Leitner, who leads the Public Haredi party, said that Shas and United Torah Judaism had threatened him to withdraw, which he said he does not intend to do. Reports give the threshold as 3 per cent in one case and 3.25 per cent in another, so the exact cut-off is in dispute.

The context of the vote

The election is the first Israel has held since 7 October, a day on which around 1,200 people were killed and 251 taken hostage. Naftali Bennett, a former prime minister and candidate, has called the election an existential moment. Voters are weighing Netanyahu, the longest-serving prime minister in Israel's history, against his critics, who say he has yet to answer for 7 October. Supporters, including some who accept he bears some responsibility, see a leader willing to do whatever it takes to keep Israel safe.