Hamas warns Israel of new October 7-style attack, Israeli authority confirms

The threat

COGAT, the Israeli authority responsible for Palestinian affairs, confirmed a report by the Israeli news site Ynet that Hamas had warned Israel of another attack on the scale of 7 October 2023. According to that account, the threat was passed on Wednesday, 21 October, to one of COGAT's officials during a meeting with Ramiz Alakbarov, the UN Middle East envoy. Alakbarov had held talks with senior Hamas members in the week before. The account could not be independently verified. Ynet called the warning without precedent, and Israeli officials reportedly described its openness and directness as unusual. The report says Hamas warned that a similar attack could happen anywhere, in Israel, in the occupied West Bank or abroad.

Why Hamas issued the threat

According to Ynet, Hamas cited two main grievances. The first is the continued presence of the Israeli army in more than half of the Gaza Strip, a year after a ceasefire was announced, along with its targeted operations against suspected Hamas members. The second is the cancellation of Palestinian elections that had originally been scheduled for November. The message, as the report relays it, was that Hamas is no longer willing to accept this situation. Ynet also framed the threat as a sign of growing military pressure on Hamas, which is reportedly facing a severe financial crisis. Israel's political leadership and security services were informed immediately.

Timeline and background

The warning sits within a long sequence of events. The Hamas-led attack of 7 October 2023 killed about 1,200 people in Israel and took more than 250 people hostage into Gaza, starting the Gaza war. The Gaza health authority, which is run by Hamas, reports that more than 74,000 Palestinians have been killed since then. The threat was conveyed on Wednesday, 21 October, and the Ynet report became public the following day.

Conditions in Gaza and doubts about Hamas capacity

Humanitarian conditions in Gaza remain extremely precarious. Large parts of the territory lie in ruins, and many people still live in tents and depend on aid. Whether Hamas still has the operational capacity for an attack of this kind, after three years of war, is disputed. Reports describe the recruitment of new fighters, but these recruits are said to have little experience or military training. The reporting therefore treats the group's ability to carry out such an attack as uncertain, while the warning itself is taken seriously by Israel's leadership.