Gulf oil exports top pre-war level as Hormuz traffic still lags and freight costs climb

Exports back above pre-war levels

Oil exports from Gulf producers other than Iran reached more than 24 million barrels a day in the week ending 18 October 2026, according to shipping data from Kpler reported by the Wall Street Journal. Before the war, the weekly average stood at 23.3 million barrels a day. The rebound does not mean normal shipping has returned. Only about 14 million barrels a day moved through the Strait of Hormuz itself and the transfer points in the Gulf of Oman, roughly 82% of the pre-war volume. Rerouting fills the difference, which lets total exports climb above their earlier level even though attacks on the strait continue.

Pipelines and ship-to-ship transfers

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have moved crude through pipelines to ports on the Red Sea or outside the strait. Kpler data cited by the sources show that about 40% of non-Iranian crude leaving the Gulf bypassed Hormuz in September, up from 17% before the war. Saudi shipments through the Red Sea rose from 750,000 to 4.3 million barrels a day, and UAE exports through the Fujairah terminal doubled. Tankers now run short shuttles: one ship loads inside the Gulf, crosses the strait, and hands its cargo to another vessel off Oman before heading back. According to the WSJ, American air surveillance along the Omani coast currently offers some protection, and Kpler says more than 70% of the oil that crossed Hormuz in August was transferred off Oman or at Fujairah.

Freight costs and crew pay

Traders can earn about $20 more per barrel reselling Iraqi oil than they could before the war, Kpler's Homayoun Falakshahi estimated, which works out to roughly $40 million per supertanker cargo. On his calculation, three successful voyages would repay the purchase of an older tanker that costs around $100 million. Crews are also paid more, and some have been offered bonuses of two to three times their usual monthly salary for trips into the Gulf. One Chinese manning agency offered up to $25,000 for a round trip that usually takes one to two weeks. Older tankers that previously carried Venezuelan or Russian crude have been moved into Gulf service, and some vessels make only short runs through the most dangerous stretch.

Prices stay high at the pump

Brent crude traded at $108 a barrel on 20 October, against about $70 in February, according to Courrier international citing the WSJ. BFMTV, citing Kpler, reported that in mid-March, when the strait was largely paralysed, exports from eight Middle Eastern producers collapsed to 9.71 million barrels a day, a 61% fall. Non-Iranian crude fell 72% within 10 days of the conflict's start, to 4.5 million barrels a day in early March, before recovering to 16.5 million in September. Brent has risen 50% over the period, according to the sources, and higher freight costs are passed on to fuel prices.