Carrefour cuts 2026 outlook and shares fall as French unrest hits its stores

Carrefour lowers its outlook

Carrefour cut its 2026 guidance after weeks of social unrest in France. The group now expects operating result growth of only 0 to 15 basis points, down from the 25 basis points it had announced earlier. The net result is now expected in the lower part of a 0 to 5% range, compared with an earlier estimate of 5 to 9% growth. Net cash flow is now expected to slip slightly, after being projected to grow slightly, and annual investments are cut to 1.6 billion euros from 1.7 billion.

Shares in Paris fell as much as 14.63%, to 13.91 euros, even though third-quarter revenue rose year on year to nearly 22.7 billion euros. About 11.9 billion euros of that revenue came from France, where the recent unrest took place. Chief executive Alexandre Bompard described the situation in France as unprecedented and said uncertainty over consumer spending and store opening conditions remains high. He said the group's strategic course is unchanged.

Looting and curfews

Weekend demonstrations turned violent on Saturday, 17 October, when looters broke into shops in several cities and some buildings were set alight. Blesk reports that about 2,000 shops were targeted, with damage it estimates in the hundreds of millions of euros. N-tv, citing police, says a low four-digit number of shops were looted in Paris and other cities. Luxury brands were among the targets, including Louis Vuitton, Apple, Hermes and Sephora. In Limoges, a fire damaged the town hall. Arrest figures differ: one account puts them at about 1,800, another at roughly 1,200.

On 20 October, a prefectural order imposed a juvenile curfew in the area between place de la Republique and Les Halles in Paris, from 23:00 until 06:00 the next morning. A second order banned all undeclared gatherings from 20:00 to 06:00, including near the Elysee, the National Assembly and the Champs-Elysees. Blesk reports that a night curfew also applied in Paris and central Lyon on the night of 21 October.

Stolen goods on resale platforms

Vinted said it has been reviewing and taking offline more suspicious listings since the weekend. Its terms bar selling stolen items, and violators risk a permanent account ban. The company did not publish figures on its checks or removals. Payouts require a bank account in the seller's full name, which N-tv reports lets the platform report sellers to police. One listing for a luxury jacket was marked as stolen on 17 October. eBay said it has seen no rise in theft-related listings and uses proactive tools to block them. Digital minister Anne Le Henanff and small business minister Serge Papin expect such offers to be removed without delay and want platforms to cooperate with authorities so resale of stolen goods can be prosecuted.

Protest background and government response

The protests began weeks earlier with high school students demonstrating over teacher shortages, dilapidated school buildings and problems with university admissions. Other groups joined over rising fuel prices, falling purchasing power and fears of further austerity measures. The CGT union backed demands for higher wages and pensions. Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu promised a large and better-equipped police deployment for the next nationwide mobilisation, called by yellow vest groups and student unions for Saturday, 24 October. President Emmanuel Macron condemned the violence and said nothing could justify it.

Costs and what comes next

Carrefour's finance director, Matthieu Malige, estimated the total impact of the events at between 80 million and 200 million euros. Direct costs run to several tens of millions of euros, covering stolen or destroyed goods, damaged equipment and stores that had to close. About 50 stores were targeted on the first day. Curfews are forcing some stores to close earlier than planned, and the group has hired outside security firms, adding to costs. Carrefour says its wide network in Paris, Lyon and Marseille leaves it especially exposed. Bompard has called for stronger security before the 24 October protests, but warned that even with better protection the company's activity will remain affected.