Self-styled pollster admits faking midterm polls; New York Times pulls 15 polls

What the pollster admitted

Wedgewood Polls, a self-described US polling organization, acknowledged in a post on X, since deleted, that 'most' of its data had been made up. The group framed the operation as an experiment to see how easily a fabricated institute could gain visibility and be taken seriously. The admission followed questions from the poll aggregator FiftyPlusOne, which contacted the group on Tuesday, 20 October.

According to a Guardian report cited by Spiegel, Wedgewood first surfaced in June, presenting itself as an election pollster that carried out independent political research. FiftyPlusOne later described the checks it had made before listing the group.

We were told the organization was a bipartisan team, including Republican Jack Sims and Democrat Andrew Prater, and were provided information about their funding sources and methodology.

How the fake polls reached mainstream trackers

The Washington Post reports that more than a dozen Wedgewood polls were listed by aggregators that vet the legitimacy of polls, including the New York Times and FiftyPlusOne. In an editor's note on Wednesday, 21 October, the Times said Wedgewood had answered questions about who its pollsters were, how they drew and weighted their samples, and where their funding came from. The paper has removed 15 Wedgewood polls from its collection. RealClearPolitics kept the group's surveys off its tracking pages, its director of polling aggregation said, because the pollster had no track record, a placeholder-style website, no staff directory and no social media history.

The case echoes an earlier one. In August, a group called Median Strategies told the Los Angeles Times that it had fabricated its results as a social experiment. Most media outlets and poll trackers shunned Median Strategies, whereas Wedgewood's numbers were picked up widely. The revelations come as artificial intelligence tools make fake polls easier to produce.

Democratic candidates hit by the fake numbers

Mallory McMorrow, a Michigan Democrat who lost the Senate primary to Abdul El-Sayed, says a Wedgewood poll published at the end of June suggested she was polling in single digits. Her account says donations dried up, volunteers were devastated and journalists pressed her to drop out. She wrote on X that the episode had effectively finished the campaign.

Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist, was shown ahead in a Wedgewood poll of the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary. Few publicly available polls existed at the time, which helped create the impression that she led the race. She went on to lose the primary.

Mike Nellis, a Democratic strategist and former adviser to Kamala Harris, told Fox News that the group had lied about its polling data and accused it of fraud. He said its members could try to claim moral superiority, despite having been caught fabricating numbers.

Trust in the midterm results

A New York Times/Siena poll found that nearly three-quarters of voters trust the accuracy of elections, including large majorities of Democrats, Republicans and independents. Still, 23 percent now say they do not trust that the results will be accurate, up from 17 percent who said the same about the 2024 presidential election. About half of voters expressed concern that Republicans could try to overturn the results. The findings come as President Trump has frequently questioned the integrity of elections and his administration has pushed unfounded claims of widespread fraud.

Regulator and industry warnings

Brendan Carr, chair of the Federal Communications Commission, acknowledged a significant rise in entirely false polls meant to disrupt the electoral process. He urged media outlets not to amplify such hoaxes. The American Association for Public Opinion Research warned in a statement about bad actors who produce and distribute fabricated data, which it said undermines trust in polls. Its president said legitimate election polls must not be confused with this kind of fraudulent activity.