EU fuel prices up 31.4% year on year in September; Portugal ranks 15th

A year-on-year rise of 31.4% in September

Eurostat reports that fuel prices for private transport in the European Union were 31.4% higher in September than in the same month of 2025. The increase follows year-on-year rises of 16.9% in July and 23.8% in August, so the annual rate has climbed across the three months. Three member states posted increases above 40%: Bulgaria at 42.2%, Estonia at 40.6% and Lithuania at 40.2%. Twelve more countries recorded rises above 30%, ranging from 37.5% in the Czech Republic down to 30.3% in Portugal, which ranks 15th of the 27 member states. The smallest increase was in Hungary at 6.9%, followed by Ireland at 17.7% and Sweden at 19.9%.

Month-on-month movement and the Iran war

Compared with August, Eurostat's figures show EU diesel prices up 5.9% and petrol up 6.7%. In Portugal the same comparison gives 5.1% for diesel and 5.9% for petrol. Eurostat does not publish year-on-year figures for diesel and petrol separately, so the 31.4% figure covers transport fuels as a whole. Fuel prices have been rising since the war in Iran began on 28 February, a conflict that is strongly disrupting merchant shipping in the region.

Portugal's pump prices from 26 October

Government Portaria 467-A/2026/1 was published in the Diário da República on Friday, 23 October, and takes effect on 26 October. It adjusts the weekly compensation mechanism and changes the outcome of the earlier estimates. On petrol, the extraordinary fiscal reduction was cut from 23.1 cents to 21.8 cents per litre, counting the ISP and VAT together, which amounts to a 1.3 cent tax increase. On diesel, the overall discount rose from 23.9 cents to 24.1 cents per litre, a 0.2 cent extra relief. Reference prices published by the DGEG for Friday stand at 2.176 euros for simple diesel and 2.094 euros for simple petrol 95. Diário de Notícias calculates that petrol will fall about 6.7 cents to an average of 2.027 euros, while diesel will rise about 0.8 cents to around 2.184 euros. Earlier, the Automóvel Club de Portugal (ACP) had forecast petrol down eight cents and diesel up one cent, to averages of 2.086 and 2.177 euros, using Thursday's reference prices.

Oil benchmark and the outlook

Brent crude for December delivery, the European reference contract, reached 114 dollars a barrel on Friday, its highest level since April, compared with 105 dollars at the same time a week earlier. The final pump price changes depend on the closing quotations for refined products on Friday and on the pricing decisions each fuel company takes at the start of the week of 26 October. The figures above are therefore forecasts rather than final pump prices.