Super El Niño fuels storms in Chile and threatens copper and crops

A possibly unprecedented El Niño

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned on Wednesday, 21 October, that its new seasonal forecast shows El Niño could reach an intensity without precedent, well above the levels in the weather records used over the past four decades. The agency expects the phenomenon to peak at the end of 2026, with its effects lasting well beyond that point. WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo put it this way:

It will peak at the end of 2026, but its effects will be felt long after.

Chile: storms and copper at risk

Bloomberg reports that the phenomenon is helping drive an unusually stormy spring in central Chile. The rain raises the risk of further disruptions to the country's copper production and to its agricultural sector. Intense rain has caused severe flooding in Santiago, where water and mud have damaged homes, shops and cars. Julián Báez, the WMO director for the Americas, told BBC Mundo that the effects have appeared in the north, centre and south of Chile, from hail and severe rain to spring snowfall.

What had been forecast is being seen and, in some cases such as Chile, probably more impact than expected.

Latin America beyond Chile

The effects are visible across much of the region. Peru and Ecuador are likely to see either a very intense rainy season or a considerable drought between December and January. Northwest Mexico is experiencing an intense hurricane season, while Central America and northwest South America face drought. In the southeast of the continent, Paraguay, southern Brazil, Uruguay and northern Argentina have recorded heavy rainfall that falls outside the range seen in years without El Niño.

Europe: effects still unclear

Experts say it is not yet clear whether the phenomenon will affect Europe. Studies conducted so far indicate that Europe is not directly affected by El Niño for now. The State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) sees no clear indications of effects in Europe, but notes that the continent remains at risk of extreme conditions because of global warming. Experts advise watching whether El Niño could raise the risk during episodes of extreme heat or torrential rain. Elsewhere, El Niño years are linked to more torrential rain and flooding in parts of Latin America and the Pacific, and to longer droughts, heatwaves and wildfire risk in parts of South America, Asia, Australia and Africa.