Morningstar DBRS lifts Greek credit outlook to positive while maintaining BBB rating

Rating confirmation and outlook change

Credit rating agency Morningstar DBRS affirmed Greece's long-term sovereign credit rating at BBB on 4 September 2026, while revising the outlook from stable to positive. The agency simultaneously confirmed the country's short-term foreign and domestic currency debt ratings at R-2 (high), also upgrading their trend to positive. The decision reflects expectations that Greek general government debt will continue to decline at a steady pace over the coming years. Morningstar DBRS noted that the BBB rating is supported by ongoing structural reforms, the improved financial health of the domestic banking sector, a credible macroeconomic framework, and Greece's institutional anchorage within the European Union and the Eurozone.

Growth projections and economic drivers

According to European Commission projections cited by Morningstar DBRS, Greece's real gross domestic product will grow by 1.8% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027. Both figures outpace expected economic expansion across the wider Eurozone, where real GDP is projected to increase by 0.9% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027. The Greek economy absorbed initial shocks in energy costs, aided by strong activity in the tourism sector, where international visitor arrivals expanded by 15.4% year-on-year during the first six months of 2026. However, growth is projected to moderate as persistent inflation curbs household purchasing power and reduces private consumption. Furthermore, fixed capital investment is expected to stay strong through 2026 before weakening as Recovery and Resilience Facility grants conclude. Downside risks to this growth baseline include the potential escalation of geopolitical tensions.

Fiscal consolidation and debt path

Solid fiscal performance remains a primary driver of the positive rating revision. In 2025, Greece registered a primary budget surplus of 4.9% of GDP, whereas member states across the European Union posted an average primary deficit of 1.0%. The fiscal outturn was driven by expenditure restraint, specifically in public sector payrolls and social welfare payments, alongside revenue gains generated by structural reforms that increased tax compliance and broadened the tax base. Even with recent fiscal measures, such as personal income tax reductions, public accounts are forecast to stay solid. The European Commission estimates Greece will achieve primary surpluses of 4.0% of GDP in 2026 and 3.7% in 2027. Furthermore, Greece is the only country among nine Eurozone peers projected to see interest spending decrease by 2030, dropping by 0.2 percentage points relative to 2025.

Morningstar DBRS outlined the connection between growth, surpluses, and sovereign debt reduction.

The European Commission projects that gross public debt will decrease from 143.5% of GDP in March 2026 to 134.4% by the end of 2027, as economic growth momentum is expected to remain relatively strong.

Political stability and autumn review calendar

Although opinion polling indicates that forming a governing coalition could prove complicated following parliamentary elections next year, Morningstar DBRS assessed the immediate political risk as low, pointing to a broad consensus among mainstream political parties on foundational economic policies. The positive outlook establishes the potential for an upgrade of the sovereign credit rating itself in an upcoming review cycle. The announcement opens an autumn round of sovereign reviews for Greece. German credit rating agency Scope Ratings and US-based Moody's are both scheduled to deliver decisions on 18 September 2026, with Scope currently rating Greece at BBB and Moody's holding a Baa3 rating. Standard & Poor's and Fitch, which both assign a BBB rating to Greece, will release their assessments on 23 October 2026 and 6 November 2026, respectively.